SpaceX Bonds: 23rd June 2026
Following its IPO, SpaceX has entered the public bond market with an investment-grade debt sale targeting at $20 billion. Go to: SpaceX Bonds.
SpaceX, the IPO has arrived: 21st June, 2026
SpaceX has been trading over a week and it is the quintessential bubble on a bubble. It is a bundling of many cool tech-bro companies that has kind of left the launch dream behind. At time of writing, it is tracking the NASDAQ and after post-IPO stupor, descending back normality.
Lets speculate on the speculation.
The mass of content buzzing on the internet, and use of AI tools to scrutinise the SpaceX IPO filing documents, has created such a demand on energy it has probably used up a bucket of uranium pellets.
Then there are the trillions, the trilldogs (Tony Greer of Macro Dirt said it first, I think). And the multiple trillions, well that’s a pack of trilldogs.
Then comes the hate on Musk, because he is now a trillionaire (he is not, it is just a valuation), and the SpaceX hopium valuation is all part of the ruse.
It needs to be speculated higher because the was the deal: Exits and lock-ins that lead to exits for the investors. And there are many. Honestly, I would like the validation too!
So the speculation is a fury, that leads to a gamma squeeze all the way, and SpaceX is riding a NASDAQ and everything melt-up. This ends at some point, and until then, enjoy the ride! It is a bubble on a bubble.
But How Does the SpaceX Trillion-dollar Trilldog Story End?
Simple. When there are no more buyers, there are no more fanboys, and it can be part natural exhaustion or a Black Swan event just swanning across the pond and flapping about making a noise. What is that event? Who knows and who cares.
But What if YOU ARE WRONG.
We’ve been here before. The Railroad boom. The radio boom. Plastics. Dot-com. Biotech. 3D Printing. Space SPACs, now Space IPOs, mixed with AI. This end, and if you conserve your cash, it ends well for you. What is of value, after the crash, is there to be bought at a fair price.
Another theory is that we are also in inflationary and possible hyperinflation phase, in which case everything goes up, and who knows, even you might become a trilldog.
You can follow more my rants at Simon Drake.
An alternative history of SpaceX for astute and contrarian investors: Written Pre-IPO
SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of making life multi-planetary, he transformed it from a struggling startup (as in not taken seriously) into the world’s dominant aerospace entity through a “fail fast, learn faster” philosophy. There’s a joke: “How do you make a million dollar space company? Start with a billion.” Was it Elon? Who knows. SpaceX’s early history was three consecutive failures of the Falcon 1 rocket, but a successful fourth launch in September 2008 secured a pivotal $1.6 billion NASA contract. This saved the firm from bankruptcy and pulled the money bowl from aging Military Industrial Aerospace Behemoths who had extended contracts and wasted billions, to this new start-up founded by a (South) African. It sounds like a success story but nothing could be so simple. The USA needed space superiority, and SpaceX was the chosen industrial vehicle because they could design, build and launch and do it again and again and again, bigger, bolder, wider and faster. Over the next decade SpaceX achieved the first vertical landing of an orbital-class booster in 2015 and the successful launch of the Falcon Heavy in 2018. Today, its vertically integrated ecosystem, including the reusable Falcon 9 workhorse, the Dragon crew capsule, and the massive Starship development program, has effectively ended the era of expendable rocketry and drastically reduced the cost of access to space. On the surface this success story is to be celebrated, but it was a well organized empire building exercise and to date it has worked. The USA deserves all the credit.
Now Cometh the Market Beast: SpaceX IPO Moment of Truth
Markets are, when free of manipulation, vicious beasts. Early 2026, we hear SpaceX is positioned for a $1.5 Trillion listing, a target IPO window in H2 2026. Following a December 2025 secondary share sale that valued SpaceX at a cool $800 billion ($421 per share), the expectations for the IPO have zoomed up to a staggering $1.5 trillion valuation. We have seen speculative Space Stocks listings previously, yet the SpaceX magic is underpinned by the massive recurring revenue of Starlink; 8.5 million subscribers gorging on data and movies. But wait, there’s more. Salivating space investors are laser-eye focused on the company’s intent to raise over $30 billion in new capital to fund “Giga Bay” production facilities and the deployment of orbital data centers. This would pivot SpaceX from a launch provider into the foundational utility provider for the extraterrestrial economy.
Market Makers and Widow Makers
The SpaceX seems too good to be true for a space investor. But, buyer beware. Expect the SpaceX IPO to be wild, bid up beyond belief IF the markets are playing along. If not, what goes up must come down, so you could even grab a share of SpaceX at recession level price. Don’t discount that space is a mean place: Rockets explode, satellites fall from the skies, radiation limits hardware. Any Black Space Swan can come along and turn the SpaceX Starship dream into a fiery pit of environmental lawsuits. But there is one overriding factor to remember, and as a space investor it is positive: SpaceX is a baby of the US Strategic Space Force and space is a pillar of U.S. Defence. They need it to fly, again and again.
Enter the YouTubers and Pundits
Individual creativity and herd behaviour is fun to combine, so get ready for a plethora of SpaceX Commentary…
SpaceX’s astronomical IPO valuation: Not so crazy—under certain conditions. Oh, check my notes… Conditions… to grabs a $1.5 Trillion valuation.
SpaceNews: SpaceX’s IPO will make space investment far less niche – SSF Editor: “But niche is nice when you’re a space investor!”
NASDAQ and Motley Fool: SpaceX Will IPO in 2026. How Much Is SpaceX Stock Worth? – SSF Editor: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get!”
SpaceX: Building out Re-Entry Capabilities