Today, the 8th of May, in the year of 2026, your humble editor, website proprietor, and observer of space stocks and funds, is taking some time to share a few thoughts.
First a not so cringe-worthy disclaimer: I write not to give virtuous investment advice, and I am definitely not hoping to predict the future, yet I would like to impress on you a few little Black Swanish opinions that might improve your future prospects.
First a quick update of where we are at: The war in Ukraine is in day 1,534. This war is really a civil war of the former USSR, and has sucked in local and great powers and spilled upwards into space. All those long-distance drones need near real-time targeting data and the swarms of LEO satellites peering down with a variety of sensors have proven to be invaluable. LEO is now a War Domain. Space Defence Stocks in LEO have risen proportionally. The recently war in the Persian Gulf, is in day 70, and no surprises, both sides are feasting on satellite data to disassemble each other’s energy infrastructure and control an energy choke point. At this point, if I were a betting man (self appointed space speculator who thinks he’s an astute space investor), then I would say it is a matter of when and not if, that the great power rivalry moves from the incessant jamming of the opponent’s satellites to something more punctual, blatant, and kinetic.
While I am not writing this using A.I., I have tasked A.I. with burning some electricity and rusting some RAM in the great data centre to sloppily illustrate my point.
So why I hear you wonder is this pertinent?
Don’t let your attention wonder just yet. If you are aware of market bubbles and craziness in cycles, and flashing macro indicators, and giddy stock market pundits and flashy influencers, you may sense an amazing period of growth akin to the last amazing period of growth in capital markets that ultimately came crashing down Humpty Dumpty style. We are in what is eloquently described as the everything bubble. Many space companies, regardless of how many innovators they employ and the expensive capabilities of their technology, are clinging on the back of the NASDAQ. Now every cycle reaches a stage of stupendous behaviour. It is a balloon blown up waiting to meet a pin prick. So here we have two pins. One is the AI boom, bloated and over invested, where a herd of elephants stampeding to a simple theatre door exit will cause panic and groans of discomfort. Another pin could be the new character of space itself; it was always a domain of peace but now it is a tinderbox. The build-out of Earth Observation to save the planet, as if greater observation was the solution, was plainly partly a strategic layer of surveillance looking for war, and it got two. Countries blowing apart each other’s energy infrastructure can cause real pain which will cause real revenge, that can drag down the price of satellite stocks and funds. Adding to the commotion is the upcoming and much anticipated SpaceX IPO. While no one rings the bell at the top of the market, this time it may not happen with a bang, but a whimper.
Forewarned is forearmed – Machiavelli
Written by Simon Drake. Visit my profile on LinkedIn.