An alternative history of SpaceX for astute and contrarian investors
SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of making life multi-planetary, he transformed it from a struggling startup (as in not taken seriously) into the world’s dominant aerospace entity through a “fail fast, learn faster” philosophy. There’s a joke: “How do you make a million dollar space company? Start with a billion.” Was it Elon? Who knows. SpaceX’s early history was three consecutive failures of the Falcon 1 rocket, but a successful fourth launch in September 2008 secured a pivotal $1.6 billion NASA contract. This saved the firm from bankruptcy and pulled the money bowl from aging Military Industrial Aerospace Behemoths who had extended contracts and wasted billions, to this new start-up founded by a (South) African. It sounds like a success story but nothing could be so simple. The USA needed space superiority, and SpaceX was the chosen industrial vehicle because they could design, build and launch and do it again and again and again, bigger, bolder, wider and faster. Over the next decade SpaceX achieved the first vertical landing of an orbital-class booster in 2015 and the successful launch of the Falcon Heavy in 2018. Today, its vertically integrated ecosystem, including the reusable Falcon 9 workhorse, the Dragon crew capsule, and the massive Starship development program, has effectively ended the era of expendable rocketry and drastically reduced the cost of access to space. On the surface this success story is to be celebrated, but it was a well organized empire building exercise and to date it has worked. The USA deserves all the credit.
Now Cometh the Market Beast: SpaceX IPO Moment of Truth
Markets are, when free of manipulation, vicious beasts. Early 2026, we hear SpaceX is positioned for a $1.5 Trillion listing, a target IPO window in H2 2026. Following a December 2025 secondary share sale that valued SpaceX at a cool $800 billion ($421 per share), the expectations for the IPO have zoomed up to a staggering $1.5 trillion valuation. We have seen speculative Space Stocks listings previously, yet the SpaceX magic is underpinned by the massive recurring revenue of Starlink; 8.5 million subscribers gorging on data and movies. But wait, there’s more. Salivating space investors are laser-eye focused on the company’s intent to raise over $30 billion in new capital to fund “Giga Bay” production facilities and the deployment of orbital data centers. This would pivot SpaceX from a launch provider into the foundational utility provider for the extraterrestrial economy.
Market Makers and Widow Makers
The SpaceX seems too good to be true for a space investor. But, buyer beware. Expect the SpaceX IPO to be wild, bid up beyond belief IF the markets are playing along. If not, what goes up must come down, so you could even grab a share of SpaceX at recession level price. Don’t discount that space is a mean place: Rockets explode, satellites fall from the skies, radiation limits hardware. Any Black Space Swan can come along and turn the SpaceX Starship dream into a fiery pit of environmental lawsuits. But there is one overriding factor to remember, and as a space investor it is positive: SpaceX is a baby of the US Strategic Space Force and space is a pillar of U.S. Defence. They need it to fly, again and again.
Enter the YouTubers and Pundits
Individual creativity and herd behaviour is fun to combine, so get ready for a plethora of SpaceX Commentary…
SpaceNews: SpaceX’s IPO will make space investment far less niche – SSF Editor: “But niche is nice when you’re a space investor!”
NASDAQ and Motley Fool: SpaceX Will IPO in 2026. How Much Is SpaceX Stock Worth? – SSF Editor: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get!”
Random YouTubers: SpaceX IPO Deep Dive;